What should I bid? - Best enquiry for December 2012

The best submission for December came from Max Henbest.

 Hand:     I was West with North the dealer and both Vulnerable:

	Dummy  A83  Q872  QJ  AQ92
You  K54  AKJ1043  92  43

Bidding:	West	North	East	South
		1	Pass	1
	2	2NT1	Pass	32
	Pass	3	Pass	4
	Pass	Pass	Pass

¹2NT: 15-18
²3: may be a 3 card suit (no checkback)

Comments:      

Hi Andy,

Ok so this is more of a defensive problem than a bidding one. Would you consider bidding anything else apart from 2 over 1?

Say you choose to lead the ace of hearts, 2, 5, 6. Partners' signal is Reverse count. How do you continue and what tricks are you planning to take?

Andy's Reply:

Hi Max,

I would definitely overcall 2. It's not a super hand, but it is a good major suit after all. I also wouldn't even rule out a 4 game on as partner might have a balanced-ish hand that couldn't act over 1 (e.g. a 2443 or 1444 12 count with short spades - something like that).

As for the defensive problem:
Instinctively I would switch to a club. My first thought about declarer's shape is that I will assume it's 5-x-4-x and disregard about being a fragment because if declarer is 3-3 in the minors then they would probably have bid 3 , and maybe sometimes if declarerhas5=2=3=3 they might bid 3NT instead of 3.

Working from there I need to assume partner has the CK for us to have any chances (otherwise various/most layouts where declarer has the CK he can always make it due to the diamond finesse being onside).

Secondly, I'm also going to assume that partner has a singleton heart because I think against the majority of the declarers, they would always play the H9 from 96 (Alex Smirnov strongly agrees with this point). How I'm going to defend this contract is really going to diverge based on this assumption because if I was sure declarer has a doubleton heart (let's say I thought declarer was much more likely to have a doubleton heart) then I would definitely cash the HK because declarer may have a dangerous club holding which would prevent us from taking our second heart trick (since partner will not have one to return).

Now that I have assumed, (1) declarer has a singleton heart, and (2) partner has the CK, it is now clear to switch to a club. But this is not the end of the assumptions. If declarer has CJxx or CTxx then we should assume we will have 2 natural trump tricks to come (partner having QJ or QT or maybe Q9), or less likely a trump trick and the DA. I'm not going to bother about the cases where partner has the DA because if that's the case then the defence is much easier and we would just need to hope for a trump trick.

If declarer has Cxxx then we will probably have two clubs and (hopefully) 1 trump trick. The only thing we need to take care in the scenarios where we need to hope for one trump trick is to remember to play the S5 on the first round of trumps (presumably declarer will play the Q or J from hand). That way declarer may play us for K5 instead of K54 and pin partner's remaining card.

Next, if declarer is 5=1=5=2 shape. After our club switch declarer will most likely take the (failing) hook. That's two club tricks, and now we just have to hope for 2 trump tricks (remembering to play the S5 in the event that partner has Q9).

One final thing that Alex Smirnov wanted to point out - there might be a small chance that declarer might reject the club hook with a 5=1=5=2 shape. Yes it does seem silly, but in the unlikely event that does happen, declarer will then be marked with AKTxx of diamonds hoping to play off five rounds of diamonds. We now need to take caution in ruffing (maybe 3rd round of diamonds, maybe 4th) with the SK to make sure partner makes their two trump tricks with QJ bare. If partner has QT bare then it doesn't matter what we do, because if we ruff low declarer can overruff with the 8, and play off 2 rounds of trumps to lose 1S+1H+1C.

I think this was a pretty tricky defensive problem and it is unlikely one can think of all possible scenarios before playing to the 2nd trick with the limited time available. Most of the scenarios happen towards the latter half of the hand, and as the play progresses you will probably see it coming.

One thing you should take away with this is that most declarers holding a doubleton heart would play the 9 from 96. From there you should be able work out not to cash the HK and switch to a club in order for the defence to have any chance. And if you're hoping for 2 trump tricks, remember to play the S5 on the first round of trumps.

Cheers,
Andy

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