What should I bid? - Best enquiry for May 2011

The best submission for May came from Viv Wood.

 Hand:     E-W Vul, Sitting South, East passes and I hold this hand.

-  KJ964  -  QJ976532

Comments:      

What do I bid? 

I opened it 1 and we still missed out on 6 hearts although the Q of hearts and the K of clubs are onside so maybe not a good slam to be in. Partner holds all 4 aces and a 4 card heart suit with a 5422 shape.

Kieran's Reply:

Viv,

Well, it's far-fetched to think that you'll be able to bid this hand scientifically. If your partner fits clubs or hearts, the opponents will have fits of their own and be bidding. And I don't think that, after opening 1, your partner will ever picture this hand.

So, I think that it's practical to take your best guess as fast as possible. I'm opening 5, happily. I don't know what will happen next. I may make it. The opponents might pass when they should bid. Or they might bid when they should pass. Note that their trump suit is breaking very poorly indeed, so lucrative doubles might be available.

With the 8-5 shape, I'm not very concerned that we need to find a heart fit. Frequently, clubs will play better than hearts, or as well. Sometimes, playing in clubs offers you the chance to take discards from the heart suit when your partner has spade or diamond winners. There's also a good chance that clubs will need to be trumps to keep control of the hand. Playing in hearts could be hellish if the opponents keep forcing you to ruff in this hand, possibly never enjoying the clubs if you lose trump control.

I actually held this hand once, almost, in a club championship in Canberra in about 1996. It was the same except that I had the club king instead of the club queen, and I was dealer. I opened 5, making. The other table paused heavily and passed, and the auction returned to him with the opponents in 6. He bid 7, cheap against the making 6, but 12 imps away against the brisker preempt at the other table.

If you do open 5, it sounds like partner should raise you to six. You could be as poor as x,x,xxx,KQJxxxxx and be making either with a diamond ruff in dummy or an eventually established spade (if the opponents lead trumps to stop the diamond ruff). The slam here is perfectly good - the grand needs luck in two suits (less than 25% - poor) but the small slam needs luck in one out of two suits (better than 75%, especially if the opponents might think that a singleton heart is a good lead) .

Kieran

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