Page 12 - ABF Newsletter December 2024

there is a 50% chance of finding the diamond Jack in the East hand, while, in isolation, a 3-3 break is around 35%. Once the only suit you know the dis- tribution of (here, clubs) is 4-1 that reduces the like- lihood of even breaks in the other suits quite dra- matically. If I play a diamond to the ten now and it loses to the Jack, or even to the singleton King my chances are down to zero. Is there a better chance?
I decided to establish the long club, giving me 11 top tricks and some chances in the endgame, where I could prevail by force against a singleton }K or by pinning a singleton jack in the East hand. West won the fourth club and played another heart, and I cashed my black suit winners. Both defenders guard- ed hearts! When I played my last spade at trick 11 West, who had the heart ten and Kx of diamonds
SEMI-FINAL
Gue 262 def Thompson (Ben Thompson, Renee Cooper, James Coutts, Liam Milne, Peter Newman, Matthew Thomson) 233
Markey 290 def Dalley (Paul Dalley, Tony Nunn, Sartaj Hans, Shane Harrison, Joshua Tomlin, Peter Gill) 260
FINAL
Markey (Philip Markey, Joachim Haffer, Sophie Ashton, David Wiltshire) 247 def Gue (Phil Gue, Stephen Burgess, Jonathan Free, Ron Cooper, Michael Courtney, Chris Depasquale) 236
discarded the }K. East had come down to two hearts and the bare }J. This had been the full deal:
]K42 [QJ }A83 {AKQ53
]853 ]976
[ 10 7 6 [K98542 }K75 }J92
{ J 10 6 2 {4
] A Q J 10 [A3
} Q 10 6 4 {987
Yes, a diamond to the ten (after the club break was disclosed) would have worked this time, bad(?) luck. You probably think East was at fault here for not discarding all his hearts. Technically, that is cor- rect, but... This hand came shortly after he had been bawled out for ruffing the diamond lead in the 4] hand given earlier, and he had already lost his equa- nimity for the remainder of that set. These things are important!
Heartiest congratulations to the winners. I will be following your every card at the Bermuda Bowl and hope you can do Australia proud. The best advice I can give you is... choose your non-playing captain with care.
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